With SQ's new flights to GRU here's what I've been thinking for a while:
SQ hub is in SIN which is as far as you can get from South America (SCL, GIG, GRU, EZE, etc…):
There are 4 routing SQ in theory can take from SIN to South America and only three of them are feasible:
1. The obvious one: Via North America:
Advantages: The biggest travel market from South America
Disadvantages: Lots of competition and have to go through US/CAN DHS/CASTA and VISA problems for certain travelers without VWP. Also 5th freedom issues.
Market: Already exists with multiple dailies on the North America incumbents from their respective hubs to all the airports in South America. For SQ this is a no-no.
2. The second obvious one: Via Europe:
Advantages: The second biggest travel market from South America (historical), no immigration/customs needed for transit/connecting passengers
Disadvantages: Lots of competition but SQ has been SEMI-successful in this market to North America with the FRA-JFK tag-on. Again 5th freedom issues.
Market: This is the correct market for SQ to transit (BCN already established, infrastructure there) because the other two routings below require specialized aircraft and other things dominated by niche players (see below).
3. Via Oceania (Australia/New Zealand)
Advantages: Lack of competition, capacity is increasingly growing from Oceania to South America. VERY PROFITABLE route (LAN just boosted SCL-AKL-SYD to daily with the A343 and lie-flat seats on their entire A340 fleet serving this route and to the EU) with easy connections to Asia.
Disadvantages: (Technical): The airspace routing between New Zealand and South America requires 4-engine aircraft as there is ETOPS problems due to lack of diversionary airports (Boeing/Airbus is working on this I hear with the new ETOPS standards and the B787/B777 and A350). If SQ were to fly this, the ONLY aircraft in their fleet that can do this is the A345 and/or A346 is they buy some (in addition to the old/new B744 and/or B748 but that would be initial capacity over-kill) due to quad/4-engine requirements to cross the South Pacific Ocean.
Existing routings over the South Pacific Ocean by Airlines (Oceania and South American):
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=EZE-AKL...D&MS=wls&DU=km
Distances
From To Initial
Heading Distance
2 segment path: 12498 km
EZE (34°49'20"S 58°32'09"W) AKL (37°00'29"S 174°47'30"E) 219.8° (SW) 10334 km
AKL (37°00'29"S 174°47'30"E) SYD (33°56'46"S 151°10'38"E) 272.0° (W) 2164 km
2 segment path: 11838 km
SCL (33°23'35"S 70°47'09"W) AKL (37°00'29"S 174°47'30"E) 226.7° (SW) 9674 km
AKL (37°00'29"S 174°47'30"E) SYD (33°56'46"S 151°10'38"E) 272.0° (W) 2164 km
EZE (34°49'20"S 58°32'09"W)
SYD (33°56'46"S 151°10'38"E) 205.3° (SW) 11789 km
Total: 36125 km
SCL-AKL-SYD is flown by LAN DAILY now and is HIGHLY PROFITABLE I HEAR with the A343 full-payload (10000km fully-loaded AKL-SCL!). They are the ONLY airline on this route with lie-flat seats in addition to Qantas crossing the South Pacific Ocean from New Zealand to South America. Their hub in SCL on the West Coast of South America allows the highest payload on the quad-engine A340 with only 9674km as the crow flies for AKL-SCL allowing them to carry a-lot of cargo in transit from Asia transiting Auckland/Sydney to Santiago in South America. Their hub in Santiago allows connections to ALL the destinations in South America.
EZE-AKL-SYD is flown by Aerolinas Argentina’s 5x a week currently now that the economy has recovered with the A342. They use the oldest aircraft and the company has limited resources. They fly this because the profit it brings (again LACK OF COMPETITION in the South Pacific to South America). They were thinking of buying the A345/6 in order to fly EZE-SYD direct like Qantas do with the B744.
EZE-SYD direct is flown by Qantas 3x a week. Qantas says they have low-loads on this route by I believe they haven’t been marketing this properly. Qantas can easily fix this by:
1. Adjusting the timings of this flight for faster connections with Asia arrivals/departures with the arrival/departure of this flight allowing seamless connections (e.g.): SIN-SYD-EZE; HKG-SYD-EZE; NRT-SYD-EZE and reverse.
2. Market this more! Direct from Australia trans-Antarctic polar to South America baby! Faster faster faster than transiting via Auckland!
For Air NZ: When are you going to get some 4-engine aircraft or the ETOPS approvals to fly direct to South America from your hub in AKL? Awesome connecting traffic from South America to Asia via NZ too.
4 . Via South Africa: Advantages: Limited market/competition like above, limited growth factors though a few airlines fly this e.g. Malaysia Airlines KUL-CPT-EZE 2x a week with the B744 (MH says they are limited by the SA authorities on this route as they want to increase capacity, again this is true). Depending on where in Asia this maybe even faster than the above route. Connections already exist with Star Alliance.
Disadvantages: Lack of profitability/passengers, also massive 5th freedom issues with the S.A. gov’t.
Existing routings over the South Atlantic Ocean by Airlines (South African and South American):
JNB-GRU: 11x weekly by South African (SA).
JNB-EZE: 3x weekly by SA.
CPT-EZE: 2x weekly by MH (continuation of KUL-CPT-EZE).
And the winner is TAAG Angola (Ok I know who in their right mind would this fly African airline considering they were just banned in the EU with parts falling off their 777’s):
LAD-GRU: 4x weekly when they were operating
LAD-GIG: 3x weekly when they were operating
TAAG mainly operates this route due to common language differences (Portuguese due to similar colonialization in history) and increasing immigration to South America from Angola (and the booming Angolese economy due to the oil resources there).
Picture: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=JNB-GRU...G&MS=wls&DU=km
The South Atlantic crossing ALSO has ETOPS problems but not as much as the South Pacific route from Oceania due to diversion airports of some military islands in the north. TAAG when they were operating operate 777’s over the south Atlantic by flying a little more northern route (+15/30 minutes rumored). SA with their A340’s have no problem being quad-engines.
Comments, suggestions?
SQ hub is in SIN which is as far as you can get from South America (SCL, GIG, GRU, EZE, etc…):
There are 4 routing SQ in theory can take from SIN to South America and only three of them are feasible:
1. The obvious one: Via North America:
Advantages: The biggest travel market from South America
Disadvantages: Lots of competition and have to go through US/CAN DHS/CASTA and VISA problems for certain travelers without VWP. Also 5th freedom issues.
Market: Already exists with multiple dailies on the North America incumbents from their respective hubs to all the airports in South America. For SQ this is a no-no.
2. The second obvious one: Via Europe:
Advantages: The second biggest travel market from South America (historical), no immigration/customs needed for transit/connecting passengers
Disadvantages: Lots of competition but SQ has been SEMI-successful in this market to North America with the FRA-JFK tag-on. Again 5th freedom issues.
Market: This is the correct market for SQ to transit (BCN already established, infrastructure there) because the other two routings below require specialized aircraft and other things dominated by niche players (see below).
3. Via Oceania (Australia/New Zealand)
Advantages: Lack of competition, capacity is increasingly growing from Oceania to South America. VERY PROFITABLE route (LAN just boosted SCL-AKL-SYD to daily with the A343 and lie-flat seats on their entire A340 fleet serving this route and to the EU) with easy connections to Asia.
Disadvantages: (Technical): The airspace routing between New Zealand and South America requires 4-engine aircraft as there is ETOPS problems due to lack of diversionary airports (Boeing/Airbus is working on this I hear with the new ETOPS standards and the B787/B777 and A350). If SQ were to fly this, the ONLY aircraft in their fleet that can do this is the A345 and/or A346 is they buy some (in addition to the old/new B744 and/or B748 but that would be initial capacity over-kill) due to quad/4-engine requirements to cross the South Pacific Ocean.
Existing routings over the South Pacific Ocean by Airlines (Oceania and South American):
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=EZE-AKL...D&MS=wls&DU=km
Distances
From To Initial
Heading Distance
2 segment path: 12498 km
EZE (34°49'20"S 58°32'09"W) AKL (37°00'29"S 174°47'30"E) 219.8° (SW) 10334 km
AKL (37°00'29"S 174°47'30"E) SYD (33°56'46"S 151°10'38"E) 272.0° (W) 2164 km
2 segment path: 11838 km
SCL (33°23'35"S 70°47'09"W) AKL (37°00'29"S 174°47'30"E) 226.7° (SW) 9674 km
AKL (37°00'29"S 174°47'30"E) SYD (33°56'46"S 151°10'38"E) 272.0° (W) 2164 km
EZE (34°49'20"S 58°32'09"W)
SYD (33°56'46"S 151°10'38"E) 205.3° (SW) 11789 km
Total: 36125 km
SCL-AKL-SYD is flown by LAN DAILY now and is HIGHLY PROFITABLE I HEAR with the A343 full-payload (10000km fully-loaded AKL-SCL!). They are the ONLY airline on this route with lie-flat seats in addition to Qantas crossing the South Pacific Ocean from New Zealand to South America. Their hub in SCL on the West Coast of South America allows the highest payload on the quad-engine A340 with only 9674km as the crow flies for AKL-SCL allowing them to carry a-lot of cargo in transit from Asia transiting Auckland/Sydney to Santiago in South America. Their hub in Santiago allows connections to ALL the destinations in South America.
EZE-AKL-SYD is flown by Aerolinas Argentina’s 5x a week currently now that the economy has recovered with the A342. They use the oldest aircraft and the company has limited resources. They fly this because the profit it brings (again LACK OF COMPETITION in the South Pacific to South America). They were thinking of buying the A345/6 in order to fly EZE-SYD direct like Qantas do with the B744.
EZE-SYD direct is flown by Qantas 3x a week. Qantas says they have low-loads on this route by I believe they haven’t been marketing this properly. Qantas can easily fix this by:
1. Adjusting the timings of this flight for faster connections with Asia arrivals/departures with the arrival/departure of this flight allowing seamless connections (e.g.): SIN-SYD-EZE; HKG-SYD-EZE; NRT-SYD-EZE and reverse.
2. Market this more! Direct from Australia trans-Antarctic polar to South America baby! Faster faster faster than transiting via Auckland!
For Air NZ: When are you going to get some 4-engine aircraft or the ETOPS approvals to fly direct to South America from your hub in AKL? Awesome connecting traffic from South America to Asia via NZ too.
4 . Via South Africa: Advantages: Limited market/competition like above, limited growth factors though a few airlines fly this e.g. Malaysia Airlines KUL-CPT-EZE 2x a week with the B744 (MH says they are limited by the SA authorities on this route as they want to increase capacity, again this is true). Depending on where in Asia this maybe even faster than the above route. Connections already exist with Star Alliance.
Disadvantages: Lack of profitability/passengers, also massive 5th freedom issues with the S.A. gov’t.
Existing routings over the South Atlantic Ocean by Airlines (South African and South American):
JNB-GRU: 11x weekly by South African (SA).
JNB-EZE: 3x weekly by SA.
CPT-EZE: 2x weekly by MH (continuation of KUL-CPT-EZE).
And the winner is TAAG Angola (Ok I know who in their right mind would this fly African airline considering they were just banned in the EU with parts falling off their 777’s):
LAD-GRU: 4x weekly when they were operating
LAD-GIG: 3x weekly when they were operating
TAAG mainly operates this route due to common language differences (Portuguese due to similar colonialization in history) and increasing immigration to South America from Angola (and the booming Angolese economy due to the oil resources there).
Picture: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=JNB-GRU...G&MS=wls&DU=km
The South Atlantic crossing ALSO has ETOPS problems but not as much as the South Pacific route from Oceania due to diversion airports of some military islands in the north. TAAG when they were operating operate 777’s over the south Atlantic by flying a little more northern route (+15/30 minutes rumored). SA with their A340’s have no problem being quad-engines.
Comments, suggestions?
Comment